Tyler J. Altemose

10/10/10

[FYI: The following is a response to this article from The Bleacher Report - http://bleacherreport.com/articles/480246-philadelphia-flyers-fans-just-dont-understand-daniel-carcillo?fb_ref=article_bottom&fb_source=home_multiline ]

 

 

You can make numbers say anything you want. I'll twist this guy's numbers around to help my argument that Carcillo is actually detrimental to the team as opposed to good for it.

 

The guy said that Carcillo had 42 drawn penalties and that with...out him we go from 6th to 26th in the league in PP opportunities. Well that's all fine and dandy, but opportunities don't mean anything unless you take advantage of it. How'd we do in terms of success on the PP with and without Carcillo's involvement?

 

Well, we were 21% on the PP, so with that said:

 

68/317 = 21% WITH Carcillo

58/275 = 21% WITHOUT Carcillo

 

This guy is trying to make it seem as if we would have not had as many opportunities on the PP without Carcillo and, as a result, we would have done worse. Well, he's part right and part wrong.

 

He's right that we don't have as many PP opportunities without Carcillo. But without him and keeping our same PP % we still get 58 PP goals. Yes, that's ten less goals but it's the SAME NHL ranking as if we had 68 goals. Therefore his contributions with respect to PPs is zero.

 

Then this guy tries to say that without Carcillo we spend more time on the PK and were hence worse off. Well, take a look at this:

 

The Flyers were 83% on the PK. They had 57 PPGA, meaning that we prevented a goal 298/356 times on the PK. Takeaway those 17 non-coincidental penalties from Carcillo, keep that PK rate, and we go 281/339 on the PK. That means we have 58 PPGA. Again, the numbers are irrelevant.

 

Here's how CAR ranked in the NHL with respect to PIM (lowest to highest) under Lavvy:

 

2003-04: 7th

2005-06: 5th

2006-07: 7th

2007-08: 23rd

2008-09: 1st

 

Aside from that anomaly year in 2007-08, you can clearly see that penalties are NOT a part of Laviolette's system. So, how did Carcillo do with penalties since Lavvy has been in town?

 

2009-10: 207 PIM; 4th....IN THE LEAGUE!

 

It's clear to me that Carcillo doesn't fit into Laviolette's system. He's supposed to be an "agitator" but it's evident here that his effect as an agitator is absolutely minimal. That means that he sucks at agitating. I don't feel like paying a guy $1.075M to not properly fill his role, especially if my team has perennial cap issues.

 

FTA: "But know this—every time you paint the guy as some worthless goon, you're just wrong. Spend some time with the stats and see for yourself."

 

Maybe this dude should practice what he preaches.

 

______________________________________

 

Michael DeNicola

10/10/10

 

Carcillo, I still have a strong man-crush on ya.

 

~fin~